Global Outlook
- Global PMI rose consistently, reaching a seven-month high at 51.8 in January.
- Slight global CPI increase due to Red Sea shipping issues, but potential for global inflation slowdown. Core Goods CPI at 1.3%, services CPI at 4.6% in December.
- Financial markets anticipate potential interest rate cuts by US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in 2024.
- 10-year Treasury bonds' rate at 4.3% in mid-February strengthened the US dollar. Despite the rise, expectations persist for a decrease in the US dollar's value throughout the year.
Air Freight Outlook
- Airfreight growth in 2024 projected at 2-5%, with increased passenger widebody capacity in Asia-Pacific impacting load factors and rates.
- E-commerce remains resilient, driving air freight volumes despite an overall slowdown due to the Chinese New Year.
- Outbound rates from India to Europe and the US doubled in February due to the Red Sea crisis, but supply remains lower compared to other Asian countries.
- Anticipation of a slight increase in demand for outbound shipments from Asia as factories resume operations by late February or early March.
Ocean Freight Outlook
- ONE and WHL forge an independent partnership through a Vessel Sharing Agreement (VSA) for a new TP AP1 loop, separate from the Maersk-HL alliance and the upcoming Gemini Cooperation.
- Post-Chinese New Year challenges result in an estimated capacity withdrawal of 35% for Europe/Med Westbound and 25% for Trans-Pacific Eastbound. Carriers strategically adjust rollover pools, maintaining stable freight rates despite sluggish cargo movements.
- Swift response to the Red Sea Crisis sees carriers deploying additional vessels, with 2M leading in average sailings and reducing overall rollover to less than 20%. Despite challenges, rates for Northern Europe slightly decrease, showcasing the industry's adaptability.
There's a lot more happening in the global freight market. Find out more in our monthly report.